New SmartTech Research Survey Finds Apple’s Foldable iPhone Entry Could Reset The U.S. Smartphone Market

“The survey shows that Apple’s anticipated foldable iPhone entry is not just a product story, it is a category story. Sixty-one percent of consumers say Apple would make them more confident in foldables generally, including Samsung and Google products. Apple may end up legitimizing the entire category, not just selling its own device,” said Mark Vena, CEO and Principal Analyst at SmartTech Research.

LAS VEGAS, NV – June 30, 2026 – SmartTech Research has released findings from a new U.S. consumer survey on the foldable smartphone market ahead of Apple’s anticipated entry into the category. The survey, conducted in May 2026 with 291 premium smartphone users across all U.S. census regions, examined consumer demand, purchase intent, pricing tolerance, and the projected impact of an Apple foldable iPhone launch.

The headline finding is the breadth of Apple’s halo effect on the broader category. Sixty-one percent of respondents said Apple’s entry would make them more confident buying any foldable phone, including products from Samsung and Google. Thirty-three percent are explicitly waiting for Apple before seriously considering a foldable purchase, representing the largest single consumer cohort in the study.

Underlying consumer interest in foldables is stronger than the category’s current sales footprint suggests. Fifty-nine percent of respondents find a foldable smartphone more appealing than a traditional candy-bar phone, and 56% find the argument that a foldable can replace both a phone and a small tablet convincing. That “iPhone plus iPad mini in your pocket” use case emerged as the strongest single purchase rationale in the data.

Demand is concentrated among iPhone Pro Max owners. Eighty-four percent of Pro Max users would consider an Apple foldable, with 36% saying they would buy “as soon as available.” Forty-five percent of Pro Max users find foldables “much more appealing” than traditional phones, nearly double the rate among other iPhone (17%) and Android (24%) users.

Price remains the structural barrier. Only 22% of respondents are willing to pay $2,000 or more unsubsidized for a foldable, while 38% cap their willingness at below $1,500. With the anticipated Apple foldable launch ASP near $2,400, carrier subsidies and device trade-in programs emerge from the data as the primary mechanism by which Apple can reach its addressable U.S. market.

The survey also suggests U.S. foldable market share for Apple could diverge significantly from global analyst consensus. Consensus estimates project Apple at 12% to 15% of global foldable share in 2027. The survey data, modeled against iPhone’s more than 60% U.S. smartphone share, points to a potential Apple U.S. foldable share of approximately 49%.

The full white paper is available at https://www.smarttechresearch.net/_files/ugd/955dad_f2e0120694704639a20080c7f9dccf21.pdf

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About SmartTech Research

SmartTech Research (smarttechresearch.net) is an independent technology research and industry analyst firm providing competitive intelligence, strategic planning, business strategy, marketing and communications, roadmap execution, and fractional executive support. The firm’s research focuses on consumer and business solutions, mobile devices, and emerging technology categories. SmartTech Research conducts primary consumer research using online panel methodologies and combines quantitative survey data with secondary analyst sources to provide actionable strategic intelligence for product management, investment, and competitive planning audiences.

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